AfD success: where the party also gains foot in the west
AfD success: where the party also gains foot in the west
The political landscape in Germany is increasingly showing a picture that is no longer only shaped by the respective regions. While the AfD celebrated massive success in the European elections in East Germany, a precise look is necessary to understand the dynamics that work in different parts of the country.
In the eastern federal states such as Saxony, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD cuts off particularly well. The election results speak a clear language: in Saxony, the party won 31.8 percent, followed by Thuringia with 30.7 percent, and Saxony-Anhalt with 30.5 percent. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Brandenburg did not get away with 28.2 percent and 27.5 percent. Based on these figures, one could get the impression that the successes of the AfD are only anchored in the east.
AfD in the West: A trend that cannot be ignored
Thomas Vorreyer, ARD journalist and specializes in extremely right -wing movements, makes it clear that there are several factors that contribute to the strong results of the AfD. In regions with many workers, structural changes and low mobilization by other parties, the opportunities for the AfD are particularly high. This also applies to Pforzheim, where a high proportion of Russian Germans influenced the electorate.
This development also contains a crucial question: Is the AfD on a way to be perceived as a serious force not only in East Germany, but also in other parts of the republic? Vorreyer points out that opinion research institutes, like Insa, are already looking at the possibility of AfD direct mandates in areas such as the Ruhr area, parts of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate.
A clear trend can also be seen in Gelsenkirchen, where the AfD became the second strongest party at 21.7 percent in the European elections, just behind the CDU (23.5 percent). This shows that the voters put in a different kind of politics that is more geared towards local and specific needs.
The overall picture and the importance for the Bundestag election 2025
political and social framework conditions
The current election results of the AfD are not to be considered isolated, but are in the context of a large number of political and social factors that have become more important in Germany in recent years. In particular, the challenges due to the 2015 refugee crisis, the economic turbulence and the associated social uncertainties have created a breeding ground for populist movements.
The post-socialist transformation processes that were associated with economic restructuring are still noticeable in East Germany. High unemployment and emigration of young people in West German federal states have weakened the social structure in many rural regions. These factors promote a feeling of estrangement of established political parties, which makes the AfD appear attractive as an alternative.growth and influence of the AfD on the political landscape
The AfD has gained influence not only in East Germany, but increasingly also in West Germany. The party strategically uses social media and direct citizenship to spread their views and programs. This modern form of communication enables the AfD to address younger and dissatisfied voters.
An example of the growing network of the AfD is the establishment of state associations and participation in municipal elections in more and more cities. This can also be seen in the results in cities such as Pforzheim and Gelsenkirchen, where the AfD was able to win significant parts of the votes. Such successes contribute to the fact that the party is regarded as a serious political actor beyond East Germany.
statistics on the voter base of the AfD
According to the Bertelsmann Stiftung , the voter content of the AfD is particularly high among men, unemployed and people with a secondary school leaving certificate. The demographic analysis also shows that the party disproportionately does the party with low trust in institutions and parties. These in turn are indicators for the attraction of the AfD in social groups that feel decoupled from the political class.
A survey of the Institute for Demoscopy Allensbach confirms that a significant part of AfD voters is disappointed with established politics and demands changes, especially in the areas of migration, social security and labor market policy. These trends could continue to influence the election result in future elections.
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