Free voters lose consent: CSU strong in the upswing

Free voters lose consent: CSU strong in the upswing

The latest election surveys from Bavaria show significant changes in the political landscape of the federal state. In particular, the free voters who are under the leadership of Hubert Aiwanger had to accept a significant decline in voting favor. The survey, which was carried out by Forsa between July 22nd and August 2, 2024, showed that the free voters would now only receive 12 percent of the votes, which is a decrease of four points compared to the state election last autumn.

decline in free voters

A year after the leaflet fabric around Hubert Aiwanger, who shook Bavarian state politics, it turns out that the party was unable to keep its voter base. The affair was an anti -Semitic leaflet that was in his possession in Aiwanger's school days. These controversy originally led to an increase in support for the free voters, but the current survey values indicate that voters are increasingly dissatisfied.

CSU wins

In contrast, the CSU has an impressive increase in its approval values and is now 43 percent - which is an increase of six points compared to its result of 37 percent in the last election. This development is particularly remarkable because it is in direct competition with the free voters, the decline of which proves to be advantageous for the CSU.

traffic light parties on the upswing

The survey results of the other parties, especially the Greens and the SPD, also show older trends. The Greens fall to 11 percent, while the SPD is only 8 percent. This shows that the traffic light parties continue to live through difficult times in Bavaria. This could have possible effects on future coalition talks and political stability in the country.

uncertainties in opinion research

It is important to note that election surveys are associated with uncertainties. In this way, changed party bindings and short -term decisions of the voters can influence the results. According to the Forsa opinion research institute, the statistical fault tolerance is about 3 percentage points. Surveys only offer a snapshot and are not binding predictions for the actual election outcome.

These survey results not only represent a change in voter behavior, but could also have an impact on future political strategies and the general mood of voters in Bavaria. It remains to be seen whether the free voters will be able to regain the trust of their voters.