Early warning system against West Nil virus: Bayreuth's new risk model
Early warning system against West Nil virus: Bayreuth's new risk model
a new model as help in healthcare
The University of Bayreuth has developed an innovative model that can predict potential infection risks of the West Nile virus (WNV) in Germany. This represents an important step in health research, especially with regard to climate change, which may favor the transfer of these disease transmitted by mosquitoes.
scientists create early warning system
The research team, consisting of Oliver Chinonso Mbaoma, Dr. Stephanie Thomas and Prof. Dr. Carl Beierkuhnlein has created a model that simulates the risk of infection by the WNV for different bird species and humans. It is based on comprehensive environmental data such as temperature and precipitation courses and takes into account epidemiological information from the past five years. This early identification system could be of great value for public healthcare to take countermeasures in good time.
The effects of climate change
The WNV is mainly transferred to humans by infected mosquitoes of birds. While the disease in southern Europe has been common for years, new insights show that rising temperatures also create conditions in Germany under which transmission is possible. No cases were registered in Germany before 2019, but since then more infections have become known.
provision and prevention by research
With this model, the researchers have created a basis that not only depicts existing areas of infection, but also constitutes new risk areas, such as certain counties in North Rine-Westphalia and Bavaria. Dr. Stephanie Thomas emphasizes the relevance of research: "Our results can serve as a valuable tool for the public health service and help to adapt prevention strategies and to change the differential diagnosis in medical practice."Successful support from government agencies
The development of the model was funded by the Bavarian State Ministry for the Environment and Consumer Protection as well as the Bavarian State Ministry of Health and Care. Due to the Baybyemos project, which is part of the overarching composite project "Climate Change and Health II", the importance of the connection between climate research and public health is underlined.
an outlook on the future
The model not only represents a significant progress in research into the West Nil virus, but also illustrates the increasing need to deal with the health consequences of climate change. Developments in Bayreuth could help to monitor and control the spread of WNV infections more effectively, which could ultimately reduce health risks among the population.
- Nag
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