Diving in the electoral system: AfD overtakes traffic light parties according to surveys!

Diving in the electoral system: AfD overtakes traffic light parties according to surveys!

On April 13, 2025, the current survey values ​​for the Bundestag election in Germany are presented, which are based on regular surveys by various opinion research institutes. The editorial network of the Germany (RND) calculates the average of the last ten surveys every day in order to maintain the exact possible picture of the political mood. The institutes that contribute to these surveys include Forsa and Infratest Dimap. According to Remszeitung initially after the Bundestag election 2021 The Union was soon overtaken as the strongest political force.

The Greens, which were able to record clear voters at the beginning of the legislative period, are also exposed to declines. The FDP has also lost support and finally failed to cross the 5 percent hurdle in the 2025 Bundestag election. In return, the AfD benefits from the losses of its political opponents and rose to the second strongest party in mid -2023, but lost some of its percentage in early 2024. In addition, the newly formed party BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) is led in the surveys just under 5 percent of the votes.

methods of survey collection

The survey methods used for the surveys vary considerably. While Allensbach carries out personal and oral surveys according to defined quotas, the institutes Verian (Kantar Public, Emnid) and Forsa rely on telephone surveys. Insa and YouGov, on the other hand, carry out internet -based surveys. In most cases, the panel size is between 1,000 and 2,000 people, whereby the results are weighted to provide representative data. The exact methodology is crucial for the validity of the survey results, such as Wahlrecht explained.

Different approaches are used in the survey: telephone surveys, personal interviews or internet -based panels. These adjustments serve to ensure that the survey results are as close as possible to the actual results of a federal election.

outlook for the state elections

The current surveys are not only important for the Bundestag election. For various state elections in Germany, the next election work is already in the starting blocks, which indicate different voter behavior. In federal states such as Baden-Württemberg , Bavaria and Hessen there are the following survey values:

The survey values ​​shown provide a first insight into the political attitude of the electorate before the next state elections, as stated by Wahlrecht . The voter representation is currently shaped by uncertainty, and voter behavior could change significantly in the coming months.