Survey thriller: SPD, Union and AfD in the race for votes!

Survey thriller: SPD, Union and AfD in the race for votes!

The political survey values ​​in Germany are currently showing clear movements and changes that indicate the upcoming federal elections. According to remszeitung Opinion research institutes that reflect the political currents in the country.

Since the Bundestag election in 2021, the SPD was initially the strongest force, but was soon overtaken by the Union. The Greens, who achieved promising election results at the beginning of their political career, also suffered losses. The FDP failed in the 2025 Bundestag election at the critical 5 percent hurdle, while the AfD benefited from the losses of the traffic light parties and rose to the second strongest party in mid-2023. However, the AfD also experienced a slight decline in its consent at the beginning of 2024.

New political game

A particularly interesting development is the rise of the new BSW party (alliance Sahra Wagenknecht), which remains just below 5 percent of the votes. The survey methods to collect the values ​​vary considerably. Institutes such as Allensbach use personal-mademic surveys, while Forsa and Verian carry out telephone surveys. Internet -based surveys are made by Insa and Yougov, for example.

The panel sizes are usually between 1000 and 2000 people, and the results are weighted according to gender, age and education to ensure representative values. Currently, the surveys not only show significant differences for the federal government, but also for the East German countries of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg.

Thuringia and coalition options

In Thuringia, the current government coalition from the CDU, BSW and SPD is considered. This coalition could no longer keep a majority, as an analysis of dawum . The consideration of possible government coalitions in the state parliament calls for a mathematical analysis of all constellations that have to come about with at least 88 seats. These coalitions must reach together or more than 45 mandates in order to be able to act.

In addition, coalitions are also displayed that could operate with more than 36, but less than 45 mandates. This could be important in future election periods, especially when parties exceed the 5 percent hurdle and thus move into the state parliament.

Bundestag and future alliances

Back to the national level, the analysis of possible government coalitions in the Bundestag shows that a merging majority of at least 316 mandates is necessary to be able to rule stable. dawum emphasizes that the current coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD would no longer have a majority.

Political developments are dynamic, and the possibility of theoretical changes in the distribution of seats remains. This depends in particular on whether new parties from 3 percentage points can reach the five percent hurdle or whether you can move into parliament with the help of the basic mandate clause.