Survey trends: Who really leads in the 2025 election campaign?

Survey trends: Who really leads in the 2025 election campaign?

On the occasion of the current survey values for the Bundestag election on May 17, 2025, extensive surveys by various opinion research institutes, including Forsa and Infratest dimap, show how the political landscape develops in Germany. According to the evaluations of the editorial network Germany (RND), the average of the last ten surveys is calculated daily. This gives a lively insight into the voter and the dynamics among the parties.

After the elections in 2021, the SPD was initially the strongest force at the top, but was later overtaken by the Union. The Greens, who initially experienced a high flight, also had to accept a decline in votes. The situation for the FDP, which has lost support in the long term, may be particularly dramatic and could possibly fail at the 5 percent hurdle in the upcoming Bundestag election. The AfD, on the other hand, benefited from the losses of the traffic light parties and rose to the second strongest party in mid -2023, but lost a few percentage points in early 2024.

Development of new parties and survey methods

The newly founded party BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) remains under the 5 percent mark of the votes. In the discussion about the methodology of surveys, it should be noted that different institutes pursue different approaches. For example, Allensbach uses personal-mademic surveys, while Verian (Kantar Public, Emnid) and Forsa carry out telephone surveys. Internet -based surveys are carried out by INSA and YouGov, in which members of selected panels are specifically interviewed. The panel sizes are mostly between 1000 and 2000 people, and the results are weighted to ensure a representative statement.

It is particularly important to know about the methods of survey, which are highlighted in color when they were last entered. This includes, among other things, telephone surveys, online panel surveys and personal-mademic surveys. It should be noted that the surveys are not carried out by the reporting body itself, but by appropriate companies. The serum results are projections that are adapted to get the election results as close as possible, informed Wahlrecht.de .

Sunday question on state elections

In addition to the Bundestag election, interest in the state elections is considerable. The latest surveys in the federal states can be read from the date of the first publication on Wahlrecht.de . Reference is made to an overview in which the current survey results are listed after the last state elections. If desired, information on missing surveys can be given by email, which promotes transparency in this area.

The political landscape is therefore in constant movement, and the votes could fluctuate even more in the coming months. The information provided by the surveys and their methodology offer a valuable basis to better understand the developments in the run -up to the 2025 Bundestag election. Current trends show a constant realignment of political forces in Germany.