Wahltrends 2025: SPD and Greens lose, AfD on the advance!

Wahltrends 2025: SPD and Greens lose, AfD on the advance!

On May 9, 2025, the political landscape in Germany, especially with regard to the Bundestag election and the current mood in the Thuringian state parliament, shows a dynamic picture. Regular surveys by opinion research institutes such as Forsa and Infratest dimap form the basis for the survey values, that of sachenische.de . The editorial network Germany (RND) calculates the average of the last ten surveys every day to draw a more precise picture of voters preferred.

Political development since the Bundestag election 2021 is remarkable. The SPD started as the strongest force, but was soon overtaken by the Union. While the Greens initially benefited from an upswing, they later lost many followers. At the same time, the FDP recorded a long-term decline and failed in the 2025 election at the 5 percent hurdle.

growth of the AfD and new party BSW

A striking phenomenon is the AfD, which benefited from the losses of the traffic light parties and is promoted to the second strongest party in mid -2023. However, she had to submit a few percentage points in early 2024. In addition, the newly founded party BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) remained below 5 percent of the votes for surveys. The survey methods vary greatly: Allensbach relies on personal-mademic surveys, while other institutes such as Forsa and Verian carry out telephone interviews. Internet -based surveys come from Insa and Yougov to efficiently capture the views of the voters.

In the surveys, a panel size of usually between 1000 and 2000 people is used to ensure representativity for the population entitled to vote. The results are also weighted according to gender, age and education to avoid distortions.

government coalitions in Thuringia

In Thuringia, the current government coalition, consisting of CDU, BSW and SPD, is considered. The analysis of the possible government coalitions shows that this coalition is presented in a dashed frame, which points out that it no longer has a majority. The considerations take into account both parties with at least 88 seats and the possibility of theoretical changes in the seat distribution system if some parties do not or do not achieve the 5 percent hurdle, as is made on dawum.de

This political uncertainty is not only noticeable in Thuringia, but also runs through the entire federal policy. The developments in the composition of the Bundestag are also important, whereby the considerations focus on coalitions that have at least 316 mandates in the Bundestag or more than 253, but less than 316.

The challenges and possibilities that result from the current surveys throw a light on the state of German politics and the dynamics of voter approval. This can be crucial for the upcoming elections and their then possible government formation, so that the political actors have to be prepared for dawum.de