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Wafts of fog over BW: Why weather apps are often wrong!
Weather forecasts in Baden-Württemberg: Fog instead of sun, causes and challenges in forecasting regional weather phenomena.
Wafts of fog over BW: Why weather apps are often wrong!
For many lovers of the golden days of autumn, October 2025 should bring a welcome change after a mixed, rainy summer. But the weather has other plans: Instead of warming rays of sunshine, there is thick fog over large parts of Baden-Württemberg. While the weather forecasts predict bright sunshine, reality often shows its foggy side. daily news reports that pre-installed weather apps on smartphones often incorrectly display sunshine while failing to correctly predict fog.
The reason for the inaccurate forecasts lies in the complex weather models that are based on the US Global Forecast System (GFS) from NOAA. This model covers the entire Earth, but has limited spatial resolution and therefore cannot accurately capture local weather phenomena. Fog typically forms when cold, moist air remains on the ground and warmer air floats above. SWR weather expert Gernot Schütz explains that high pressure areas in particular are often not depicted correctly. Instead, the models incorrectly show sunny days when in reality thick layers of fog are developing.
Alternative weather models
While the GFS plays a significant role globally, the German Weather Service (DWD) uses the ICON weather model for comprehensive forecasts and ICON-D2 for regionally adapted forecasts in Germany. The latter addresses specific meteorological conditions, although even this model cannot guarantee complete forecasts. Precise forecasting of fog remains a challenge, particularly in geographically complex regions such as the Black Forest or the Alps. Foehn winds often ensure that the sun shines on one side of a mountain while thick clouds of fog prevail on the other side. Michael Kost, also a weather expert at SWR, emphasizes that precisely predicting fog under these circumstances is almost impossible.
Overall, the results of these meteorological observations are of great importance for many of us, especially if you plan to go into nature or just want to drive to work. It turns out that even the most sophisticated weather apps are sometimes overwhelmed by the natural conditions.
And if you're worried about the fog, you could instead turn your attention to the impressive natural history experiences in colorful regions like Ria Formosa in Portugal, where the flora and fauna offer fascinating insights. At RIAS – Centro de Recuperação de Animais Selvagens, the restoration of biodiversity is documented and there is a lot for nature lovers to discover. National Geographic captured this process for over a month.
The next few days and weeks will show whether the sky will still give us sunny early morning moments or whether we will have to prepare for more foggy surprises. So if you're planning to do something about the weather, you should take a look at the sky every now and then or consult a good source - perhaps a little observation of nature will even help make it easier to adapt to local conditions! Further information is also available here.