Bitcoin retailers are preparing for the FOMC meeting because volatility threatens

• The FOMC is expected to keep interest rates at 4.25 %–4.50 %, the CME tools show a probability of 95.6 %.
• Swissblock marks $ 97k $ 98.5K as a key resistance zone.
• The comments from Powell could move Bitcoin towards the outbreak or correction.

Bitcoin is just below $ 94,000, while investors are preparing for the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday and Jerome Powell's press conference after the session.

Source: Coinmarketcap

The Fed is generally expected to keep the key interest rate at 4.25 % –4.50 % constant, whereby the data of the CME Fedwatch Tools show a probability of 95.6 % for an interest rate increase.

Despite this consensus, the dealers are preparing for volatility, which could be triggered by Powell's comments on the economic situation, inflation and interest rate development, which could influence the risk sensation across digital assets.

The market participants particularly attach great importance to future orientation, since current economic data and geopolitical tensions cloud the expectations for interest reductions later this year.

Trade volume sinks, ETF inflows slow down before the Fed event

The recent sideways movement of Bitcoin reflects a cautious market mood.

The ETF inflows have dropped and the levers have an effect while the dealers are waiting for clarity.

analysts of Swissblock describe the environment as a "battle of resistance" and notice that the high open interest and negative financing rates indicate intensified bear bets.

You characterize the area of ​​$ 97,000 $ 98,500 as a critical resistance zone.

An outbreak about it could trigger short liquidations, but a failed increase could catch bear dealers if the dynamic subsides.

Liquidation data also support this tension. While the price hovers within a tight range, derivative retailers seem to bet on a volatile movement in both directions.

The risk of risk has decreased, but significant positions remain open, which indicates that the market participants prepare for an outbreak or decline, depending on Powell's sound.

Powells information could determine the market direction

While no interest rate increase is expected this week, the dealers are looking for information on the attitude of the Fed for June and beyond.

In previous meetings, Powell's words have led to considerable fluctuations on the crypto markets.

December 2023 experienced a Hawkish turn that led to a broad sale of risk systems, and some fear that a repetition could be repeated if Powell signals further tightening or recently ignored economic slowdown.

The market mood was clouded by weak GDP data and renewed trade conflicts with China.

The effects of President Donald Trump's latest customs rhetoric have aroused concerns that interest reductions that were originally expected in June may be delayed.

Veteran dealer Mathew Dixon noticed that the expectations for a reduction in June are already switched to maintenance, which further puts the mood under pressure.

The recent increase in the gold price is also seen as a sign of risk-free positioning. According to analysts, this indicates that investors are protecting themselves against potential shocks by announcing the Fed.

The price movement of Bitcoin depends on macroeconomic signals from

Bitcoin is currently consolidating near local support, while retailers weigh up the macroeconomic uncertainty.

Degens, or risky crypto dealers, are reporting on long positions and expect a price movement.

However, some analysts warn that the market players could possibly push the prices down to trigger stop-without orders before there is a potential upward trend.

The analysis of Swissblock supports this view and suggests that an outbreak may be accompanied by a last liquidity.

Historical data offer mixed signals. Three of the last five FOMC announcements collapsed with Bitcoin rallies, but The event this week is overshadow.

The unresolved tensions between the USA and China, weaker consumer demand and the political pressure around inflation are difficult for the market mood.

Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes previously argued that a return to quantitative loosening could spark a parabolic Bitcoin rally.

but in the absence of pigeon signals, Bitcoin could recently test deeper deep stalls and experience a sharp retreat.

Since there is no clear catalyst in both directions, the market remains carefully balanced and is waiting for Powell's next step.