The ETF season continues while the Spot ther application is submitted while the markets are progressing

the central theses

• The cryptom market has shown increased volatility
in the past few weeks due to the ETF developments
• Grayscale in his case against the SEC with regard to his ETF application received a positive decision
• Then the markets fell when the regulatory authority postponed the approval date of all ETF applications
• Cathie Woods Ark Invest has now applied for a spot ether ETF
• The market is largely expected with the approval of an Ether ETFs based on futures before mid-October
• ETFs are inevitable, and although the headlines may repeat themselves, there is hardly any volatility of elsewhere nowadays

The cryptoma markets still have an unusually low volatility, but in the past few weeks there has been at least a small relaxation.

Most of it is due to one or the other way to ETFs. Last week, Grayscale obtained a pioneering decision against the Sec: A federal court decided that the SEC was wrongly rejected an application from Grayscale investments when converting his trust into an ETF. The judge said that the regulatory authority "did not give an explanation" after its decision.

This triggered a new wave of optimism that Grayscale would not only receive ETF approval, but also the numerous other applications that are currently on the waiting list would be successful.

However, the markets repeled the majority of these profits when the SEC announced shortly afterwards that it would postpone the decision for all ETFs to October.

Apart from this delay, the regulatory image for cryptocurrencies brightens. A few months ago, the future of the entire industry seemed to be in danger in the United States. While there are still serious concerns in large parts of the room (the countless allegations against Binance could prove to be shocking), it seems inevitable that ETFs are simply a matter of time.

In addition, hope that Bitcoin may not be the only asset that receives the ultimate seal of approval. Cathie Woods Ark Invest and 21shares have applied for a spot ethereum ETF, the first attempt to write down such a fund in the United States.

Although this is the first spot ETF attempt, there were several applications for ether on the futures page. Bloomberg in August that the regulatory authority There would probably be almost a dozen, probably approved - an expectation that most of them join in the industry.

The reluctance of the SEC compared to spot ETFs is based on the fact that there is no regulated crypto market that is large enough to prevent market manipulations. While many denounce this refusal to approve the ETFs as unjustified, their reluctance to look at the liquidity situation can be clearly seen. The SpotVolumina was decimated this year, while futures and derivatives have cut off much better.

If the approval actually comes, it should actually strengthen the liquidity itself, which in a way represents a hen egg problem. And since the demand for these products increases, the SEC can only resist the approval of these products to a limited extent.

Possibly the macro situation may also play a role here. In the United States, interest rates were raised from almost zero to over 5 %, which is equivalent to one of the fastest tightening cycles in modern history. Accordingly, investors have withdrawn along the risk curve. Crypto is as risky as it can be, and the prices fall as a result. Although Bitcoin has so far increased by 55 % this year, since inflation has subsided faster than expected and the expectations regarding the future development of interest rates have still become more optimistic, it is still over 60 % below its fourth quarter of 2021.

Nevertheless, the market now expects that only a further (if at all) interest increase is imminent, which may cause more investors to invest in the room again and to recover liquidity. There is also the question of halving in April 2024, although it remains too early explain with confidence what effects this event will have.