Why Bernstein Bitcoin sees new highs in 2025

• Analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, argued that short -term correlations between Bitcoin and assets such as gold or the NASDAQ are misleading.
• amber pointed out that almost 9 % of the total Bitcoin offer are now blocked between ETF stocks and company reserves.
• chhugani found that the current momentum of companies and institutions alone could drive Bitcoin to new highs in 2025.

Bitcoin could soon reach new highs, since the company accumulation and re-inflows in stock market-traded funds (ETFs) drive an “offer bottleneck”, analysts from the research and brokerage company Bernstein said in a message to customers on Monday.

Analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, argued that short-term correlations between Bitcoin and assets such as gold or the NASDAQ are misleading and that factors such as the erosion of retail sales, the accumulation of company reserves and strong ETF inflows offer a clearer signal for the development of Bitcoin.

Last week, Softbank, Tether, Bitfinex and Cantor Fitzgerald announced the foundation of Twenty One Capital, a Bitcoin company project that begins with 42,000 BTC.

The project is supported with $ 900 million from Softbank, $ 1.5 billion of Tether and $ 600 million from Bitfinex, with plans for fusion with Cantor Equity Partners through a SPAC and for the procurement of further $ 585 million at the end.

Bernstein compared the strategy of Twenty One Capital to that of Strategy, which has raised $ 2224 $ 2024 and so far $ 8.6 billion in 2025 for the aggressive expansion of its Bitcoin stocks.

A decisive advantage of Twenty One is, however, the support, especially by Tether, who generated $ 13 billion of $ 148 billion in 2024.

The company accumulation is becoming increasingly competitive, the analysts noticed, since around 80 companies now hold around 700,000 BTC, which corresponds to 3.4 % of the total Bitcoin offer.

ETF inflows return

In the meantime, the US Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have increased again after a two-month rest break after the 31%decline in Bitcoin from his all-time high from over $ 109,000 on Inauguration Day to a low of nearly $ 75,000

In the past week, over $ 3 billion was added - the highest level in five months and the second largest inflow in history. Bitcoin was recently traded at about $ 95,295.

ETFs now have over 5.5 % of the total Bitcoin offer, which corresponds to around $ 110 billion in managed assets.

of which is kept almost 33 % of institutional investors - an increase of around 20 % in September - with 48 % of the institutional AUM held by investment advisors and 31 % by hedge funds.

Bernstein pointed out that almost 9 % of the total Bitcoin offer is now blocked between ETF stands and company reserves-a seven-time increase since January 2024. The latest executive order of President Trump could further accelerate the sovereign acceptance of Bitcoin to establish a US strategic Bitcoin reserve.

chhugani found that, while the current momentum of companies and institutions alone, Bitcoin alone could drive to new highs in 2025, no significant Bitcoin purchases are currently being used by the US government and could trigger global change in the strategies for the sovereign accumulation.