XRP ETF inflows could exceed $ 8.3 billion by 2026, says Standard Chartered

• NAV benchmarks for BTC and ETH ETFs underpin the forecast.
• The final period of the SEC for the approval of the XRP ETF is October 12th.
• polymarket data show a 79%probability of approval by the end of the year.

The anticipation for an XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) grows in the crypto sector, while analysts weigh up potential tributaries, market time pacts and regulatory dynamics.

While rumors and delays have shaped many of the latest conversations, data-based forecasts from decisive institutions now offer a clearer picture.

The standard chartered bank predicts that an XRP Spot ETF listed in the USA could attract between 4.4 billion and $ 8.3 billion in traces, based on the net value of benchmarks, which for existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFS can be seen.

This forecast, although optimistic, comes with caution from other market participants.

Standard Chartered supports its forecast on ETF benchmarks

Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said that the NAV-to-market capitalization conditions of already approved US spot ETFs were used to model potential tributaries for the XRP ETF.

Bitcoin and Ethereum-Spot ETFs currently show navs of around 6% and 3% of their respective market capitalization.

Application of these circumstances to XRP’s market capitalization results in an range of $ 4.4 billion to $ 8.3 billion.

Kendrick raised data from Bitwise Etps in Europe, where XRP, Solana and Litecoin are traded next to BTC and ETH.

He pointed out that old coins make up a larger proportion of ETP-NAV in relation to their market capital, although this may reflect the lower number of products that are available for old coins compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

XRP price forecast revised against the background of ETF-optimism

based on the expected ETF inflows, Chartered a significant increase in the XRP price.

The bank expects XRP to increase to $ 5.50 by the end of 2025 and reach $ 8.00 by 2026.

The goal for 2029 is $ 12.25

This forecast requires the approval of the XRP ETFS and a general continuation of growth in digital investment vehicles.

For comparison, Kendrick noted that Bitcoin could achieve $ 120,000 in the second quarter of 2025, $ 200,000 by the end of the year.

XRP will probably keep pace, even if with an overall lower acceptance and inflation differences.

The current inflation rate of XRP is 6% compared to 0.8% in Bitcoin.

Bitfinex analysts express cautious counter arguments

Despite optimistic forecasts, not all market observers agree that XRP ETFs would create the same enthusiasm as Bitcoin products.

Analysts of the crypto exchange Bitfinex argue that the investor interest may be thinly distributed via a growing list of Altcoin ETFs.

Therefore XRP could not experience any tributaries in a comparable amount to Bitcoin, even if approved.

Your caution reflects broader concerns about the market saturation of ETFs and regulatory clarity.

While Bitcoin enjoys legal clarity as a goods, XRP is confronted with classification problems and legal disputes that could affect investors' trust.

Template for the approval of the XRP ETFS remains uncertain

Several financial companies, including Grayscale, Wisdomtree, Bitwise, Canary and 21shares, have submitted applications for XRP ETFs from Securities and Exchange Commission.

The application from Bitwise was officially recognized on February 18, whereby a maximum period of 240 days or October 12 was determined for a final decision.

This reflects the time frame that was previously used for Bitcoin-Spot ETFs in early 2024.

However, other applications for Altcoin ETFs, such as those for Solana and Litecoin, could influence when a decision is made about XRP.

According to Kendrick, Litecoin could be prioritized, since it has similarities with Bitcoin and was treated historically as goods.

Polymarket data show that the likelihood of approval of the XRP ETFS is currently 39% until the end of the year.

Analysts, including Eric Balchunas von Bloomberg, suggest that Litecoin could be the first among the old coins that receives permission, followed by HBAR and finally XRP and Solana, which are confronted with unresolved challenges in security.