China is preparing for a war

The tensions between the West and China show no signs of relaxation. Interdippers and distrust continue to mix truely. The triggers are diverse and diverse, including: human rights, relationships with Russia with Ukraine, production of microchips and the Great Land, Taiwan.

Then there is the rhetoric. US Finance Minister Janet Yellen is for talks in Beijing who aim to reduce some of these tensions. It is ironic, but not unprecedented that President Xi at the same time at the same time the troops of the Eastern Theater Command - the one who faces Taiwan - says that they have to increase their willingness to fight and "... still have to think and act militarily." Questions from a political perspective, they dare to fight, be good in fighting and defending our national sovereignty, security and development interests. ”

This is not the first time that XI orders an information use like this in such a way that he coincides with a diplomatic visit, and he is also not the first Chinese president to do this.

hu Jintao did something similar in 2011 and asked his military to "meet extended preparations for war". Since then it has happened many times. It can be argued that this constant need to position yourself in this way hides a lack of self -confidence.

xi's military strength and the speed of advancement may be breathtaking, but what experience is the basis for you? The use of Russia in Ukraine has repeatedly shown that spectacular parades are not synonymous with a solid combat competence. His message is matched to Yellen's visit to achieve a maximum international effect, but internally it is more of a kick against its generals than an immediate call to the weapons.

Is a war with China inevitable in the long term? General Mike Minihan from the US Air Force says this is the case; An aggressive attitude that, in my opinion, is shared by many in the US military. But as it is, there are many who believe that the situation will continue to get a grip on continuing diplomatic efforts and the deterrent effect of our united armed forces.

The persistent importance of both conventional and nuclear deterrence must not currently be underestimated. This should be accompanied by military operations and exercises, paired with maximum diplomatic efforts, gentle and hard nature, which should show what it could look like if these efforts fail.

We can be sure that the US Pacific Command will plan for all “fight” eventualities with a high degree of granularity. Since I myself was part of an emergency plan led by the United States (luckily none of my time was put into practice), I know that the level of detail that flows into American wargaming is unusual, as well as the algorithms that you use to determine the damage and loss levels.

, however, it was interesting, the peculiarity, during a game of war a kick from Enemy Nevertheless, the planning of Pacom will be comforting for a war with China.

So what about Great Britain? Well, we are taken into account in the plan. Somewhere in the chapter "Wealth" will be what we could offer in a "fight tonight". This is zero at the moment, with an excuse to HMS Tamar and HMS Spey, the almost unarmed patrol ships that are currently everything we have in the Indopazacific region. Then there would be the question of what "best effort" would look like if we would send everything we have in defense and find a reasonable middle ground with corresponding provision periods.

We Briten will be a footnote with two exceptions in relation to the overall combat force. Our aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth (with complete equipment from US and Allied jets) would be a striking piece on the game board if it were out there.

Secondly, our attack submarines armed with Tomahawk marching aircraft are a threat with a nuclear power, which worries every Chinese admiral. There will be other areas in which we can make a contribution, such as secret services, cyber attacks, special units, etc., but the carrier and the submarines will be the focus of the conventional plan.

at QE and the U-boats of the Astute class we have the latest skills. The sponsor himself has redundancy (which has recently proven to be useful when the HMS Prince of Wales replaced a broken shaft in the dry dock), but everything below is very thin: we only have very few F-35 jets that we can bring on board, and only a few accompanying ships send them with it and not enough ammunition (including Tomahawks), support them helicopter or support them They logistics ships.

Much of it can be improved if you act in a kind of allied operational group that is put together for a fight like this, but every time you have to put a star next to your assets (*needs US support), its usefulness decreases until they finally appear across the room and question: "Are you there or not?" That happens.

And of course none of these assets are currently available. The HMS Queen Elizabeth left a significant impression in its effort there in 2021, but will not come back until 2025. Likewise, our attack on submarines are already fully used elsewhere. Someone will have found out how quickly these two things could be achieved, but it is not "soon".

The Aukus alliance between us, the USA and Australia is an outstanding political and military cooperation, but it will take an eternity to go online, and a lot could happen during this time. However, there were talks about sending one of our submarines to the Indopacific Early at an early stage.

If this is done and coordinated with US attacks in the region and we buy more Tomahawks, this would be a significant British contribution to deterrent and fight. However, there are many unfounded assumptions.

In the broader sense, the integrated review update is completely and still not clear whether continental Europe, the North Atlantic or the Indopazacifik should represent the "main effort". All eyes are therefore aimed at the upcoming defense command and balance sheet documents in order to assign resources to these areas and thus provide some answers.

This turn will not have the slash -grubbing effect like the 2010 process, but there will also be no more money: probably less in real numbers. We are still almost the only country in Europe that is currently decided against an increase in defense spending.

In the meantime, the situation in Taiwan feels like a "circular press flight". Let me explain.

I was in a naval exercise in front of the north of Scotland some time ago when a small plane approached the ship and claimed that it was neutral and full of press. We spoke to him and then warned him, starting with "Hello, who are you?" "Turn off now, otherwise you will be shot".

Then it turned at a distance of five miles, on which the rules of operation would have allowed to start shooting, around 90 degrees and began to circle the ship. We continued to talk to him and read "warnings", but they protested, explained their peaceful intentions and continued to revolve. But now they were four miles away. My bluff was called. We had information that suggested a threat from small aircraft, but they did not end directly and so we were not allowed to attack. Now they were at three.

It was a brilliant scenario, because when do you push?

This is what happens to China and Taiwan. China continues to circle, gets closer and closer, but never aims directly at the goal. Aggressive exercises, invices, drone covers and attacks are continued until they become "normal", then they will be tightened a little.

My work theory is that you come closer and closer to a natural disaster like an earthquake or a tsunami to offer cover for one last step under the guise of humanitarian aid and disaster help. It is difficult to say "no" to help, and before you notice it, the Chinese presence on Taiwan has also become "normal". I could be wrong. I hope this is not the case, because many of the alternatives are much, much worse.

In the meantime, the diplomatic, information and deterrent efforts on both sides are continued quickly. XI will continue to build up equipment and behave aggressively, and the West will continue to try to decide where it should position itself between appeasement, necessary cooperation and aggression.

The United Kingdom will continue to make its contribution where it can, and hopes that nobody will notice how small the stick is with which we are gently proceed.

to end the story: I had no idea about the "press flight" until I heard our American exchange officer in the operating room. He was a little confused when I put on my headset and told him: "Turn off, otherwise we shoot you", but did what we said.

Then a break of five seconds followed before a new voice could be heard on the radio: "British warship, here is the aircraft pilot." Can I just see that it is still an exercise? ”

They had turned away before I could say "yes".

tells you something.