The Dutch farmers' party is in the starting blocks, but do not yet write down Mark Rutte

In the end it was migration and not the nitrogen that the Dutch government brought down. Not that the Dutch farmers' party would be interested.

The Bauern-Bürger-Movement (BBB) ​​secured a landslide victory in the regional elections in March and became the largest party in all twelve Dutch provinces and a force in the Senate.

After months of protesting tractor against the government's plan to forced agricultural businesses that emit nitrogen to forced to achieve the EU climate protection goals.

The elections were de facto transformed into a referendum about Mark Rutte, who is the longest in office after 13 years in the office of prime minister in Dutch history.

The leadership and the members of the BBB confidently predicted that the coalition's days were counted.

The coalition of conservative and liberals will collapse before the end of the year and the BBB was ready to intervene, it said.

Analysts and experts disagreed. Surveys assumed that the BBB would become the equal party with Mr. Ruttes conservative VVD in a parliamentary election.

Since there is no nationwide vote by 2025, why should the four member parties of the coalition be given up their alliance and so soon risk another bloody nose on the ballot box?

Mr. Rutte was used to act as a minority in the Senate, and he would certainly stay calm and hold his fourth coalition alliance together.

As it turned out, he was blamed for the collapse of the coalition after he had "angered" his allies in conversations about migration with a "my way or the highway" posture.

The number of asylum seekers in the Netherlands is expected and Mr. Rutte wants it to be reduced.

This also applies to his former partner, the Christian Democratic Appeal, who gave up his traditional support from the farmers in favor of BBB.

Mr. Rutte urged to take part that would make it difficult asylum seekers to bring family members into the Netherlands, and to a monthly upper limit for their number.

This was a step too far for the Liberal D66 and the Centralized Christian Union, which in their policy represents the priority of the family.

But Mr. Rutte was perhaps aware of the BBB's demand for an upper limit for asylum seekers and was determined to enforce the measure.

he might expect the D66 and the Christian Union to give in for fear of BBB, and in this case his risk went back.

Caroline van der Plas, the chairwoman of the BBB and current only MP, was understandably happy about the gift that landed in her lap on Friday evening.

They bragged that the BBB flags and banner were ready to "in the shed" and waited for a tractor that was ready for another traction.

However, the VVD remains the largest party in the Netherlands and the hard line of Mr. Rutte in the migration question has proven itself.

If the VVD keeps its crown as a dominant political force in the Netherlands or even shares it with the BBB, it will be in the best position to form another coalition government.

Ms. Van der Plas is ready to go to the government with the VVD, but not if Mr. Rutte remains chairman.

Mr. Rutte, a clever fox, will have noticed that established parties have closed alliances to exclude the BBB from the regional governments after March.

He could rely on a similar Cordon Sanitaire after a parliamentary election in autumn to stay in office and to secure new and accommodating allies in the coalition.

Mr. Rutte thinks about his next step, but says he has the energy and ideas to continue.

This is the fourth time that he gives the Dutch king his resignation as Prime Minister, and he returned to power after the previous three occasions.

The story has shown that copying "Teflon Mark" is at your own risk.