Russia's most dangerous approach in the next phase of war

military planning is a tricky pastime.

The British army teaches that when dealing with the sensitive question, what an imaginative, capable and adaptable enemy will do, two extreme measures should be planned: the most likely procedure and the most dangerous (MLCOA and MDCOA).

The wave that finally breaks over it is probably somewhere in the middle of these two scenarios.

have right is not the point. Instead, the process of examining your own weaknesses and the wishes of an enemy should enable a commander and military staff to predict problems before they occur - and have a plan for all possible scenarios, only in case.

What could such a exercise look like one year after the beginning of the Ukraine war from Kiev and Moscow?

The Russian assessment

Ukraine is currently focusing on training thousands of troops on the new western tanks, artillery, air defense systems and other equipment promised to them.

This training takes place largely outside the country, and it will take many weeks for Ukraine to put an army with "combined weapons" in the field - an army in which all components work together and not just coexist.

The most likely procedure in Ukraine

keep the existing front as long as it takes for the new, fully trained force to get into the country and be able to break through the Russian lines.

In the meantime, use opportunistic counterattacks in the meantime without being overwhelmed or crucial.

The most dangerous approach in Ukraine

break through Russian defense and drive to the southeast towards the coast around the city of Berdjansk.

This would split the Russian troops in two parts: one in Donbass and one up and north of the Crimea.

It would cut Wladimir Putin's country corridor to the Crimea and the Kertsch Bridge (which was only released for road traffic this week after an explosion last October-the railway line is still not in operation) as the only way to supply the troops in Crimea.

The Ukrainian assessment

Putin also urgently has to equip his armed forces with hardware - but he has received less international support. Some of the tanks and artillery guns, which he has increasingly rely on in recent months, are 50 years old and extremely susceptible to modern weapons.

He also needs more workers - his largely untrained army of mobilized men is estimated that around 1,000 victims (dead, wounded, missing and prisoners) lose every day, while around 500,000 men in military age have left the country to avoid war.

Russia's most likely procedure

Mobilize (quietly) at home and continue the tactics of the "human wave", which can achieve profits, albeit at enormous costs, in the hope that the mere numerical strength will overwhelm the Ukrainian defenders and force Kiev to negotiate from a position of the weakness.

Russia's most dangerous approach

ensure a reliable and abundant supply of ammunition and equipment from China, Iran and North Korea to build an army that can progress with modern equipment.