Why XI Jinping will not ride Putin's rescue at the first meeting since the beginning of the Ukraine War

Why XI Jinping will not ride Putin's rescue at the first meeting since the beginning of the Ukraine War

It is unlikely that Vladimir Putin will meet on Thursday, when the leaders of Russia and China will meet for the first time since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the urgently needed military support from XI Jinping.

The two presidents will gather for a rare personal meeting at a summit of the strong rulers of Asia, while Putin's armed forces in Ukraine suffer shaking losses.

Analysts, however, say that Mr. XI, who is leaving China for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, will not agree to break a promise, not to send any urgently needed weapons to his increasingly desperate allies.

The old desert city of Samarkand on the Silk Road in Uzbekistan was ordered this week for a security lock for the leaders.

schools and countless public offices have closed for three days of vacation, the airport was closed and train tickets to Samarkand can be bought - as long as their name is on the list.

Mr. XI and Mr. Putin will welcome the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Samarkand, a gathering of Asia's strong leaders, which is referred to as the "Dictators' Club". In theory, NATO's alliance could do something, but it lacks the same security guarantees, which is why it is often dismissed as largely irrelevant.

Putin and XI promised friendship without limits

Mr. Putin and Mr. XI last saw themselves a few weeks before the invasion of Ukraine when both promised a friendship without limits. But the warfare in Ukraine has shown that the Kremlin overestimated Beijings for Moscow.

"The Russians are now completely aware that a friendship without limits, how it has been proclaimed, is really a friendship without advantages," said Mark Galeotti, an author of Russia and director of the consulting company Mayak Intelligence, to The Telegraph.

"The Chinese will do nothing to help the Russians at their own expense."

The invasion of Russia in Ukraine has neither expressly supported nor convicted, but instead used it as an opportunity to condemn the West to unleash and fuel an economic war against Russia.

From the beginning,

Beijing has made it clear that weapon sales or any material support for war efforts are completely taboo. And nothing will have changed.

If at all, China could be more hesitant than ever, to put on hand.

The economic shock that the West inflicted on- from the interruption of the transport connections and the blocking of the Russian's Visa and MasterCard bank cards to the freezing of the assets of the Russian central bank abroad- was a warning example for China.

It showed how easy it can be to become a complete paria and the Kremlin if you suddenly decide to penetrate a neighboring country.

Chinese companies, from banks to technology companies, treat Russia as a toxic business goal and shy away from being punished for the bypass of western sanctions.

Even Russia's hopes that China's technology company such as Huawei could easily replace western imports, quickly evaporated.

Russia risked to become China's junior partner

China's technology giant closed his Moscow office early in the war and made it clear that he would not even sell Russia smartphones. The sale of microchips that the Russian military urgently needs for its high-tech weapons is completely excluded.

A Kremlin consultant said on Tuesday that Moscow had said that China "understands the reasons that have forced Russia to start his special military operation".

and China's top diplomat said on Tuesday that it was ready to work with Russia to bring the global order "in a more fairer and more sensible direction".

But in reality, Russia's catastrophic war in Ukraine, which has already cost thousands of human life, an international reputation and hundreds of millions of foreign currencies to turn Russia into China's junior partner in Central Asia

Mr. XI has selected a summit of the SCO in Samarkand for his first trip abroad since the time before the Covid pandemic.

He finally leaves China just one month before his expected third term as chairman of the China Communist Party, which China could be the longest in reigning communist leader since Mao Zedong.


Russia's lengthy war in Ukraine has already triggered concerns that Moscow will soon no longer have resources to comply with his peace -preserving commitments in Armenia and in Central Asian countries in which it maintains military bases.

China that Russia liked to have central Asia controlled, where it has growing economic interests, may want to encourage Putin to continue Russia's presence in the region. It could also warn the Kremlin that it is increasingly talking about nuclear extortion, something that has been seen as taboo.

Theoretically, the SCO is an alliance against NATO, but it lacks the same security guarantees, which is why it is often dismissed as largely irrelevant.

On Thursday and Friday, the summit will bring strong men and leaders of the countries together who are so different and yet in their autocratic tendencies as similar to the Turk Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Indian Narendra Modi. Both represent emerging economic powers that Mr. Putin would like to claim as his allies.

But the Russian atrocities in Ukraine made it difficult to cheer him on autocrats and Putin sympathizers like Mr. Erdogan.

For Mr. Putin, the SCO summit is a chance to show that Russia is not alone in what it is increasingly referring to as Moscow's existential struggle with the West.

"Putin will try to get everything that looks like an appearance, support the other countries," said Mr. Galeotti.

The journey of Mr. Xi outside of China began on Wednesday in the steppes in Kazakhstan, which is often referred to as the “place of birth” by Mr. Xi's “Gürtel und Straße” initiative, the pioneering project that symbolizes China's spread in Central Asia.

President XI praised China's relationships with the two Central Asian republics in a separate article for Kazakh and Uzbek media and promised to defend the “common security” in the region.



Under the new President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Russia has seen Russia in recent years as a robust global economy that could serve as a straight away for global markets.

unprecedented western sanctions have paralyzed entire sectors of the once globally integrated economy in Russia. It has increasingly made Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states to further cooperation with Moscow.

Central Asian nations should serve as a intermediary for the delivery of western goods to Russia such as smartphones, unless this violates western sanctions - but Moscow for larger investment projects is now out of the question.

"You will be very nice and polite and do not reject Russia immediately because you do not want to annoy Russia, and we know what Russia can do when it gets angry," says Temur Umerov, a scholarship holder of Carnegie Endowment for international peace, said The Telegraph.

In contrast to the neighboring countries of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, who are faced with growing debts to China, Uzbekistan has taken care not to borrow too much in China or open up to Chinese mammoth infrastructure projects, and recently insulted the Russian state media for being presenting the summit that they have presented as a summit Anti-Nato alliance.

Source: The Telegraph