How Himars Russia could force an embarrassing collapse in Ukraine

A few weeks ago, the Russians announced a "company break" in the Donbass.

combat interruptions like this are quite normal in this type of high -intensity warfare, since huge supplies are required and damage is caused.

armies sometimes only have to take time out to reorganize themselves and rebuild their supplies, even though they usually do not send to everyone that they do this.

This is a bit strange and gives the impression that there must be another reason that the Russian military activities have decreased.

And it lost weight.

The Russian artillery fire has decreased significantly and there are much less offensive.

They compensated for this by firing a few rockets on cities, just to remind everyone that they were still there and still relevant. As if we all forgot it.

and while the Russians focused on forming themselves in the Donbass, the Ukrainians began to hit destinations on the Cherson front in the south. In fact, this continues a topic: the Ukrainians have actually taken away Russia in the south more territory than the Russians took away them in Donbass.

This is the reason why the Russian military activities have decreased - they play catching up and try to accelerate assets and staff to defend Cherson in the south.

Cherson is strategically very important - it is the only base that the Russians have north and west of the Dnipro river, which is the greatest strategic barrier that runs across the Ukraine from Crimea to Kiev.

For the Ukrainians, it is also the way to the Crimea where they should put pressure on the Russians if they want to drive them out of all over the country. If the Russians feel threatened in Crimea, they will pull units from other places, including Donbass.

It is crucial that the Ukrainians began to use the artillery systems donated by the West with a greater range during this Russian “surgical break” and to attack goals in the south.

In the last fourteen days, the Ukrainians have hit command and control posts up to a range of 70 km of the new systems. The goals include headquarters, communication locations, air defense radars, etc.

to destroy it, dislike a military force.

This type of range means that they generally meet brigade and division headquarters as company and battalion headquarters.

In a war, they keep the most valuable things away from the front to protect them. Artillery with a greater range disturbs this calculation.

Secondly, the Ukrainians came across delivery difficulties. I am sure that we have all seen the videos and photos on Twitter.

Judging by the size of these fires, it was a care deposit at the brigade, division and corps level, which mainly contain fuel and ammunition.

and especially for the Russians and the way they wage war, this means a lot of artillery ammunition.

That meant that the Russians had to remove all of these supply camps from the scope of the new Ukrainian artillery.

And that has a very simple effect: the Russians now have to transport all of these supplies 100 km instead of 30 km to get to the front where they are used.

And that means that Russia, which is dependent on a very artillery -based type of warfare (and artillery is extremely logistics -intensive), can probably no longer bring enough supplies to the front to carry out offensive; You can probably only defend yourself on the Cherson front now.

As a cake of the cake, the Ukrainians have started to beat the bridges across the Dnipro river that Cherson combines with the other side of the river. In other words, the bridges to the back of the Russian armed forces.

There are only two of them. And they have not yet destroyed them, they have just littered them with craters, which makes them unsuitable for severe logistics and unsuitable for the Russian armed forces to move their tanks and infantry fighting vehicles over it.

If I were a Russian soldier in Cherson, I would now have quite afraid.

The way to bring an enemy force to break down is to take your command and control, to meet your logistics and then play with your thoughts.

and the Ukrainian government does this: on Sunday she announced that she would be in Cherson until September; President Selenskyj previously spoke of a million-man army marching on Cherson.

I will watch Cherson and the south of Ukraine very closely in the next few days - we could soon get another “gesture of good will” from the Russians, which reminds of their withdrawal from Snake Island - only that this time they will also leave behind their equipment.

Dr. Mike Martin is Studies Visiting Fellow at King’s College London and author of Why We Fight.