Poland in front of electoral thriller: Who will be Duda successor? Trzaskowski or Nawrocki?

Poland in front of electoral thriller: Who will be Duda successor? Trzaskowski or Nawrocki?

Warschau, Polen - On May 18, 2025, Poland is faced with a crucial choice in which a new president is elected to replace the previous incumbent Andrzej Duda. After ten years in office, Duda is no longer allowed to compete. Favorites include the Mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski from the Citizens' Coalition, and the historian Karol Nawrocki supported by the national conservative PIS. According to Merkur , Trzaskowski leads in the surveys, while Nawrocki is in second place. A total of 13 candidates, including Slawomir Mentzen from the Confederacja, apply, whose opportunities are assessed as low.

The choice could not result in an absolute majority for one of the candidates in the first round, which would require a runoff election between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki in two weeks. In the background there is a political power struggle between Donald Tusk from the citizens' coalition and Jaroslaw Kaczynski from the PIS, which could strongly influence the direction of Polish politics. A turnover of around 30 million Poland election sharing is expected, which underlines the importance of this process.

political topics in the focus

Central topics of the election are the war in Ukraine, concern about Russian sabotage files and doubts about the US reserve for Poland. According to ZDF , trzaskowski considered the cooperation within Europe as essential and relies on a stronger role of the EU in NATO. He also demands more EU funds for defense purposes. Nawrocki, on the other hand, emphasizes the need to strengthen relationships with the United States and speaks against illegal immigration.

The PIS ruled from 2015 to 2023, which has led to tensions with Brussels and Berlin due to its strict line. Looking back at the SEJM elections in October 2023, in which the PIS kept a strong influence, political polarization in Poland becomes clear. While Tusk leads the center-left alliance, the PIS is strictly conservative and promotes nationalist positions. The Commission on the investigation of the "Russian influence" is the focus of political discussions and is often referred to as "Lex Tusk", since it is directed against the opposition leader, as Rosa-luxemburg-Foundation

candidates in detail

Rafal Trzaskowski, who is liberal and pro-European, speaks five foreign languages ​​and has positioned itself on various social issues. Among other things, he demands legalization of abortions until the twelfth week and is committed to LGBT rights. In migration policy, however, he has taken a moderate attitude to react to the social currents.

The outcome of the election will not only influence the political direction of Poland up to the European elections in June 2024, but also the social issues that are dealt with in the election campaign. The focus on family protection, women's rights as well as migrant and LGBT rights could strongly shape the basis of the new president. The election campaign has already reached an emotional climax, whereby the polarization of the electorate is clearly visible.