China's exports are booming despite the trade war: surprise for the world!

China's exports are booming despite the trade war: surprise for the world!

Wuhan, China - China's export growth clearly exceeded the analysts' expectations in March 2025. Exports rose by 12.4 percent in the year, while analysts only expected an increase of 4.4 percent. In the period from January to February, exports were only 2.3 percent. The decline in imports to China, which was 4.3 percent in March, is also surprising, although experts had only expected a decline of 2.0 percent. These developments illustrate the effects of the ongoing trade conflict between China and the USA, which is increasingly gaining sharpness.

The trade conflict escalated in early 2025 when the US government announced tariffs of up to 40 percent on Chinese imports. This drastic measure aims to reduce the trade deficit and to proceed against trading practices perceived as unfair. Before these new tariffs, the sentences were between 7.5 and 25 percent. In addition, a law is brought in in the United States that could end China's preferred trade status, while the "de Minimis" regulation for low-value imports is also questioned. These developments could reduce Chinese economic growth by up to 1 percent.

forecasts and trade balance

The Chinese economic forecasts have already been adjusted by banks. Goldman Sachs reduced the estimate of the Chinese GDP growth in 2025 from 4.5 percent to 4 percent, while Citi reduced its forecast to 4.2 percent, previously 4.7 percent. Both revised forecasts are therefore under the growth goal of the Chinese government of "around 5 percent". China's trade surplus was $ 102.64 billion in March, but this is lower than the amount of the previous month and the level of the previous year. The world organization for trade (WTO) warns that the trade dispute could restrict the goods traffic between the two countries by up to 80 percent.

The US government argues that the high tariffs and investment restrictions are necessary to slow China's emerging influence in the areas of technology and artificial intelligence. Other countries, including EU countries, also face the challenge of balancing their trade relationships to both the United States and China. The increasing pressure could lead to companies have to reorganize their supply chains and have to expect increasing prices for imported goods, which could further heat inflation.

reactions from China

The reactions from China are characterized by defiance and patriotism. Videos from Wuhan show how a grill restaurant uses a surcharge of 104 percent on your bills. These customers are asked to contact the US message with questions. Factory leaders say that they prefer to go bankrupt than to submit to the United States, and some shopkeepers remove iPhones from their shelves.

In the middle of all of these tensions, Donald Trump, US companies such as Apple and Nvidia plans to grant customs exception for certain Chinese export products. This exception would probably affect some of the products affected by the tariffs such as cell phones, computers and microchips. However, while the political actors focus on the intensive conflict, the uncertainty about the future development of the trade conflict, which depends heavily on political, economic and geopolitical factors, remains.

Analysts and investors should therefore adapt to persistent uncertainties, while the global markets continue to react to developments in this delicate situation.