Election campaign in Hamburg: SPD threatens historical debacle when choosing a citizen!

Election campaign in Hamburg: SPD threatens historical debacle when choosing a citizen!

Today, on March 2, 2025, the election as a citizenship will take place in Hamburg. The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is one of the last strongholds of the party in Germany, but faces significant challenges. According to current surveys, the SPD could only expect 32 percent of the votes, which corresponds to a decline of more than seven percent compared to the 2020 citizens' election. In the recent Bundestag election, the SPD in Hamburg achieved only 22.7 percent, which reinforces uncertainty about its future political strength ( Compact-Online ).

Compared to the past election, the CDU, which was at a low point at 11.4 percent in 2020, could now increase to around 17 percent. This would be an encouraging development for the Union, which in 2004 still received 47.2 percent of the vote in Hamburg. The Greens also have to expect a possible decline to 16 percent, which corresponds to a minus of 8.2 percent compared to the last election, where they received 24.2 percent.

The political landscape in Hamburg

The FDP, which failed in 2020 at the 5 percent hurdle, is now faced with a vote of around 3 percent. The AfD, on the other hand, could increase from 5.3 percent five years ago to double -digit results, but traditionally has difficulties in gaining a foothold in Hamburg. Especially in districts such as Billstedt, the AfD could reach over 20 percent without creating a real breakthrough. The left is estimated to be around 13 percent and could be on the up, while the BSW will probably not exceed the five percent hurdle ( ndr.de ).

In the run -up to the election of the citizens, the high turnout in the Bundestag election, which was 80.8 percent. This represents an increase of 3 percentage points compared to 2021. The participation in Groß Flottbek and Nienstedten with over 90 percent, while in districts such as Billbrook/Rothenburgsort, the turnout was below 65 percent ( Wahlen.info ).

elections in the new context

With the upcoming choice of citizenship, Hamburg faces the challenge of asserting itself in a changing political climate. The decline in large people's parties and the emergence of smaller parties harbors both risks and opportunities for established actors. The SPD is struggling to claim its role as the strongest force in districts such as Steilshoop, Niendorf and Rahlstedt where it traditionally cuts off well.

The Greens, on the other hand, have their strongholds in Eimsbüttel and Bahrenfeld, while the CDU scores in noble districts such as Harvestehude and Rotherbaum. The election to the citizens will not only decide on the future of the political landscape in Hamburg, but could also give a deeper insight into the mood of the electorate, since the turnout and the preferences of voters vary greatly ( Compact-online , ndr.de , Wahlen.info ).