Iranians in Kassel: War as hope or fear of the regime?

Iranians in Kassel: War as hope or fear of the regime?

The conflict between Iran and Israel has also caused excitement in Germany, especially in the Iranian community. In Kassel, for example, there are more than 1,100 Iranians who identify with current developments to varying degrees. Many of them hold out hope for regime change in Iran, while at the same time some are afraid to publicly advocate these views. Khaled Mohtadi, an 81-year-old Iranian exile, has severely lost his contact with Iran due to the mullahs' regime's strict communication restrictions. Since his arrival in Germany in 1985, the situation in his homeland has changed dramatically, and rising food prices are just one aspect.

Leila Mohtadi, Khaled's daughter, who works for migrant organizations and is a member of the Foreigners' Advisory Board, sums up the concerns of Iranians in Germany. “We live in constant fear of reprisals from the regime,” she says. The Iranian regime has been waging war against Israel for decades, which has found a worrying escalation in the current attacks. Leila sees a strong desire for freedom - especially among the younger generations in Iran - and is convinced that the Islamic Republic will not survive this war. In addition, concerns about civilian casualties in Israel coincide with the growing desire for stability.

The reaction of the diaspora

Opinions on Israel's attacks are divided in the Iranian diaspora. Some, especially monarchists, support military action against the Iranian regime, while others, such as Iranian doctoral student Navid, who strongly criticizes the regime, clearly reject the bombings of civilians. “The Iranian people do not want to be liberated from outside, they are fighting against their oppressors,” emphasizes Neda Paiabandi, a Kurdish woman who is actively involved in the organization “Woman Life Freedom Unity”.

Meanwhile, Vitaly Kivsh, a Jewish German-Israeli, also expresses his support for Israel's attack. “The overthrow of the regime in Tehran is of common interest for both Israel and the Iranian people,” says Kivsh, recognizing the need for both communities in Germany to work together in solidarity so as not to further aggravate the conflict. Naomi Tamir, a student, is concerned about the humanitarian consequences but believes a preemptive strike is unavoidable to ensure her own safety.

Long-term perspectives of the conflict

The analysis of current developments warns that the situation could quickly worsen. Israel pursues military-technological superiority, but cannot guarantee that it will decisively strike Iranian military installations. The potential for the conflict to spread regionally is high. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that this conflict will last as long as it needs to. Meanwhile, Iran is suffering heavy losses and is considering adjusting its war strategy. Iran could try to make the conflict even more diverse and painful for the region, including by blocking the strategically important Suez Canal, where 20% of the world's oil is transported.

Overall, a diplomatic solution seems a long way off. Iran's foreign minister has signaled that Iran would stop its attacks if Israel did the same. But there are currently no real diplomatic initiatives in sight that could pacify this conflict. The USA, on the other hand, is observing the situation with a certain benevolence towards a military weakening of Iran, which could exacerbate tensions towards the regime. However, the Israeli leadership's hope that the Iranian people will rise up against the mullahs' regime may remain unfulfilled in the long term.