July heat promises icy winter: What the farmer's rule reveals!

July heat promises icy winter: What the farmer's rule reveals!

Today the calendar shows July 18, 2025, and the discussion about the weather and its forecasts is as lively as ever. Especially at this time, when temperatures of up to 40 degrees Celsius have been recorded in Germany, an old farmer's rule is particularly popular: "If July makes us hot, winter brings a lot of ice." This seemingly simple wisdom has deep roots in agricultural lore and offers an interesting look at the connection between summer heat and winter temperatures. So reported Mercury that this rule is based on the principle of balance, meaning that a hot summer may be accompanied by a colder winter.

But how important is this rule? The meteorologist Jörg Riemann explains that the popular version may not have been handed down completely correctly. In fact, the “Dog Days,” which last from July 23 to August 23, are referred to as the relevant period for this rule. In addition, a high pressure area in July could have an impact on the weather in January, with a 50 percent chance of this happening. The rule has its basis in observations of nature, but is far from being a reliable replacement for modern weather forecasts.

From farmer's rules to precise meteorology

Farmer's rules can certainly provide a charming insight into times past, when people tried to explain the weather through observations and superstitions. The origins of these rules go back to the Babylonians and Egyptians, who wrote weather sayings 5,000 years ago, similar to today's farming rules. This describes it ARD Alpha, that meteorology began in antiquity, starting with Aristotle and his empirical studies.

Over the centuries, numerous systematic weather observation stations have been established. Progress in weather forecasting began in the 18th century, when the first weather maps were created. Today, weather reports are commonplace and rely on the most modern technologies such as satellites and computer models. These developments have significantly improved the accuracy of the forecasts, so that the 24-hour forecast now achieves an accuracy of around 90 percent, according to the German Weather Service (DWD).

Peasant rules in a modern context

Although farming rules are often viewed as nostalgic memories these days, they can still provide practical use. It is important to know that many of these rules not only depend on decades of observations, but are also based on certain meteorological features that enable a higher hit rate. This means they can be used as a supplementary source of information if you want to prepare for the coming weeks or seasons.

A look at the coming months could be revealing: the farmer's rule could actually be responsible for one or two unexpected winter visitors. However, in order to fully understand the weather situation, it should not be forgotten that the science of meteorology, with all its advances, is indispensable today.