South Sudan on the abyss: Oil exports in danger from Sudan's military threat!

South Sudan on the abyss: Oil exports in danger from Sudan's military threat!

Port Sudan, Sudan - On May 21, 2025, the South Sudan faces an economic crisis because Sudan has announced that South Sudanese oil exports. This country is dependent on oil revenues that make up over 90 % of the state finances. Sudan announced the closure due to damage in the Port Sudan region, which arose during the attacks by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This decision was announced on May 9, 2025, which brings the fragile economy of the South Sudan in a serious danger because it is completely dependent on export via Sudan.

The RSF attacks not only led to a damaged fuel depot, but also affect the power grids in Port Sudan. Experts warn that a closure of the export systems could have devastating consequences for the South Sudan, since the two countries have been financially closely linked since the independence of South Sudan in 2011. Sudan raises fees for oil export, which further strengthens the economic dependence of South Sudan on its northern neighbor.

threat to the economy and the population

Significant economic bottlenecks are already foreseeable. South Sudan's President Salva Kiir is under pressure because he cannot maintain his patronage networks without oil revenue. Security forces and civil servants have been waiting for salary payments for months. A stop of the oil income could further increase Inflation and drastically deteriorate the living conditions of the civilian population. Around 60 % of the population currently suffer from acute food bottlenecks.

A worrying scenario is emerging because there is speculation that the Sudanese army deliberately stops the oil flow to put pressure on the South Sudan. This could further destabilize the already tense situation in the region. However, representatives of the South Sudanese government are in negotiations with high civil servants from both countries to prevent the oil contracts from closing

resumption of oil exports

On May 9, 2025, a state broadcasting reported that South Sudan's oil exports were resumed after a pipeline damage that was created during the conflict between the Sudanese army (SAF) and the RSF in April 2023. The crack, which had occurred in an RSF-controlled area in the state of Weißer, led to losses of billions and tightened the already existing hunger crisis.

The repair of the damaged pipeline, an important lifeline for the South Sudanese economy, was necessary to get exports going again. According to the technical advisor in the Ministry of Petroleum from South Sudan, Mohamed Lino, the resumption of exports was of fundamental importance, since over 90 % of South Sudan's foreign exchange revenue is generated from these shops.

Analysts have found that side effects such as environmental pollution and rising food prices could further tighten the emergency of the civilian population. Despite the resumption of oil transports, the situation in South Sudan remains fragile, and many experts believe that the economic forecasts will remain negative without stable oil revenue.

The upcoming presidential elections in December 2024 could continue to complicate the situation, since President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar are struggling for the country's control and stability. In view of corruption and a high degree of uncertainty, it is essential for the government to stabilize the economy to prevent future unrest.

The developments of the coming weeks will be crucial to see whether the South Sudan can successfully overcome its dependence on the oil, or whether the impending closure of exports will lead to a humanitarian crisis.

For more information: al jazera href = "https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/south-sudan--resumes-exports-hrough-sudan-after-conflict-induced-pipeline-repairs/v3x8czy", GTAI .