CDU and SPD lose majority: AfD is very much added in a new survey!

CDU and SPD lose majority: AfD is very much added in a new survey!

Two years after the start of the black and red coalition in Berlin, the government parties fight CDU and SPD, which together receive 39 percent of the votes, for their majority. A current survey by Civey on behalf of the Tagesspiegel Despite the fact that it remains the strongest force at 24 percent, compared to the election in 2023 more than four percentage points. The SPD, which achieved its bad election result of 15 percent last year, loses another three points and thus contributes to uncertainty.

On the other hand, the Greens and the AfD each achieved 16 percent in the survey. While the Greens lose more than two percentage points compared to the last election, the AfD can increase an increase of seven percent. The newly founded BSW would come to seven percent, although the FDP should not overcome the five percent hurdle with three percent. Die Linke achieves 13 percent and only lost minimal compared to the last election.

coalition options and challenges

The survey, which was carried out from April 8 to April 22, 2025 and aimed at over 3000 people, suggests that the current political landscape in Berlin is complex and challenging. To make matters worse, no two alliances would be possible in the current results. As far as the coalition situation is concerned, a Kenya coalition from the CDU, the Greens and the SPD could form a majority of 55 percent, while a left-green triangle of the Greens, SPD and Linker would only come to 44 percent.

The black and red coalition under the CDU leadership took power after the repetition election on April 27, 2023. The next House of Representatives in Berlin is already scheduled for the end of September 2026, which exerts further pressure on the two parties that long for a stable government. Compared to the surveys in other federal states, such as the Thuringian state parliament, there are also considerations about possible government coalitions, especially with regard to the distribution of seats in connection with the five percent hurdle.

Civey, which acts as a start-up based in Berlin and carries out online surveys for opinion and market research purposes, has established itself as the main actor in the collection of voter opinions. The surveys are distributed via established platforms such as Spiegel.de and T-online.de, even if there have been repeated legal disputes between Civey and Forsa regarding methodology and advertising claims, as the Reporting of PolitPro shows.

The situation in the Berlin elections reflects broad national trends in which various political currents struggle for supremacy. In order to be successful in this inconsistent political climate, the parties must rethink their strategies and be ready to consider new coalitions to ensure a stable government.