Trump's return: chaos, inflation and impending recession in the USA!

Trump's return: chaos, inflation and impending recession in the USA!

USA - President Donald Trump took over the presidential office again in January 2025 and has been bringing fundamental changes in internal and foreign policy since then. Many Americans express their disappointment with the continued inflation, which despite Trump's promise to fight them, could not be reduced. Trump's rigid customs policy contributes to the price increases. Political new beginnings should usually result in an increase in stock exchanges, but instead the markets experience a dramatic drop of course, which is referred to as the "Trump-Dump". Derleiter Remszeitung Trump's further procedure.

In addition, the economic fears in the United States, especially in view of Trump's announcement of an economic boom, intensified in October 2024, which has not yet occurred. Economists warn of impending negative growth. The Fed Atlanta forecasting model expects an annual decline in gross domestic product of 2.8%for the first quarter of 2025. These concerns are reinforced by the current labor market conditions: In February 2025, only 151,000 new positions were created, while the unemployment rate increases slightly to 4.1%. In addition, the planned layoffs increase by 245% in the same month compared to the previous month, which is partly due to cuts in the Efficiency Authority Doge under Elon Musk. The Tagesschau emphasizes that uncertainty through Trump's economic policy reduces the willingness of companies and investors for investing.

reactions to Trump's economic policy

Investors on the US exchanges are increasingly nervous in the face of an impending economic downturn. The tariffs to European steel and aluminum imports are now in force and the EU has reacted with countermeasures. This leads to further confusion in the markets, where investors' uncertainty increases. Capital market expert Jürgen Molnar notes that the markets cannot be calmed down by hopes for peace in Ukraine. Trump's customs policy, which is considered one of the main causes for increasing inflation, could further heat this problem. According to the ZDF therefore there is therefore uncertainty about the economic future of the USA, whereby a possible recession is not excluded.

The decline in consumer confidence has been to the lowest level since June 2024, as well as the increasing core inflation indicate that the public remains skeptical. Many Americans have stocks, which makes a counter reaction more likely in the event of an economic decline. Despite the warnings of some economists that consider the US economy as robust and consider a short-term recession to be unlikely, the long-term competitiveness of the US economy remains at risk.