US tariffs threaten German exports: trade war on the brink!

US tariffs threaten German exports: trade war on the brink!

Deutschland - The mood among exporters has deteriorated significantly since the United States introduced new tariffs. According to a current report by FAZ Companies surveyed with a decline in export sales between 2 and 10 percent. Before the customs increases in April 2023, this value was only 5 percent. These developments indicate a sharp upheaval in international trade, which is characterized by increased trade barriers.

The majority of the exporters surveyed are pessimistic about future export forecasts. The positive expectations with sales increases fell from 40 percent to less than half. For the whole year 2025, export losses of up to $ 305 billion are forecast, as Aylin Somersan Coqui reports from Allianz Trade.

tariff: Protectionism and changes in trade

In Germany, 39 percent of those surveyed expect a decline in exporter proceeds. Another study by Allianz Trade, which is also in the Boersse Frankfurt published, discusses the possible effects of a US memorandum entitled "Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs". This memorandum demands an investigation for fairer trade relationships and could lead to an increase in global effective customs sets in the USA.

The strongest affected people would be countries such as Argentina, India, Brazil, Chile and Kenya, for the customs increases between 23 and 34 percentage points. The European Union and China would be moderately affected, with customs increases of 13 and 12 percentage points. This could mean that the average customs rate for EU products in the United States could increase from 1 percent to 14 percent.

International trade order and their challenges

The debate about tariffs is closely linked to the topic of globalization and free trade. Although tariffs have been reduced worldwide since the 1950s, a trend towards protectionism has developed in recent years. An article by Deutschlandfunk emphasizes that the US has increased the tariffs again under Donald Trump, which indicates a growing protectionism. This policy can result in a distorted and unjust trade environment, in which tariffs are used as an instrument to pursue political goals and disrupt interior supply chains.

Jürgen Matthes from the Institute of German Economy also points out that tariffs should also generate income for states and protect domestic producers. Historically, the removal of tariffs was a common means of promoting your own economy. This is reflected in US trade policy, which pursues the goal of bringing back and supporting industries, for example by "reshoring" production facilities.

In this complex scenario, smaller companies and consumers primarily face major challenges. The fear is growing that rising tariffs lead to higher prices and that the risk of payment defaults could increase, especially in the states concerned. Almost half of the world -respondents assume increased uncertainty in the markets, especially in the USA, Italy and Great Britain.