Saxony's state election: a head-to-head race between the CDU and AfD

Saxony's state election: a head-to-head race between the CDU and AfD

Dresden (dpa) - If the elections for the new state parliament take place in Saxony next Sunday, the current political situation ensures plenty of excitement and uncertainty. For the first time in the history of the state elections in Saxony, the outcome could not be clear. According to the election surveys, the CDU and the AfD have a head-to-head race, while the SPD, the Greens and the left have to fear for their comeback. A new teammate, the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), has also brought itself into play and achieves survey values ​​of up to 15 percent, which makes it the third strongest force.

The times seem over when the CDU could be sure to win the choice. Political scientist Hans Vorländer emphasizes that the Union has lost more and more second votes since 1994, despite repeated election victories. In facts this: in 1994 the CDU received almost 1.2 million second votes, while in 2014 it was only about 645,000. In the last election in 2019, she was able to keep the AfD (27.5 percent) just at a distance, but the picture has changed since then.

there is a three-way coalition?

Surveys show that the race is extremely tight. The current status of the ZDF polite barometer occupies 33 percent for the CDU and 30 percent for the AfD, while the BSW ends up to 12 percent. At the same time, the Greens and the SPD are 6 percent each, and the left could fly from the state parliament with 4 percent, unless they win two direct mandates. The free voters are also under discussion, but there is once again little hope for the FDP to become relevant.

The uncertainty runs through the entire election campaign. Johannes Kiess, political scientist in Leipzig, points out that many strangers are involved. In fact, the new BSW could significantly change both government formation and the previous political structure. It remains unclear whether the CDU with Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer as a top candidate due to a possible office bonus can win the election.

The role of the Greens and Left

The top candidates of the SPD and the Greens emphasize that stable conditions are necessary, but this is not so easy with regard to the surveys. In the last surveys, the existing alliance of the CDU, the Greens and the SPD hardly has the majority. The Greens were even able to publicly deny the BSW democratic legitimacy and see this movement as infiltrated by Kremlin

The dynamics between the parties are also reflected in the election campaign. The aggressiveness and populism seem to have increased. Vorländer reports of a hard election campaign in which hatred and voices against the political opponents are spread not only on social media, but also on the street. The brutal assault on the SPD politician Matthias corner when postering in Dresden is just an example from a series of similar incidents that illustrate the violent clashes in the current political landscape.

With all these uncertainties, the appearance of the new BSW, and the continuing rivalry between the CDU and AfD, Saxony faces an election that shows both exciting and worrying perspectives.