Survey: BSW on the successful course in elections in Saxony and Thuringia

Survey: BSW on the successful course in elections in Saxony and Thuringia

A current survey on the upcoming state election in Saxony and Thuringia suggests that the new BSW party under the leadership of Sahra Wagenknecht may hope for double -digit results. This survey, carried out by Forsa on behalf of "Stern" and RTL, shows impressive values ​​for the party, which has not been active in the political market for long.

The election in both federal states takes place on September 1st. In Saxony, the BSW could move into the state parliament with 13 percent and in Thuringia. BSW is therefore an important player in both countries who could change the political landscape.

Current survey results

If you look at the current survey values ​​in Saxony, the CDU is 33 percent at the top, followed by the AfD, which achieves 30 percent. The BSW is in third place, which is remarkable for a new political movement. The SPD and the Greens each record 6 percent, while the left, which was still strongly represented in the last election, could only reach 3 percent and would therefore no longer be represented in the state parliament.

The possible coalition formation in Saxony is interesting. The black-green-red coalition could continue, but only if the uncertainties of the survey of plus/minus three percentage points are neglected. This means that the political landscape can change quickly and that all parties have to react carefully to the election.

In Thuringia, the situation looks a little different. Here the AfD is also at the top with 30 percent, followed by the CDU with 21 percent and the BSW with 18 percent. The left, currently under Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow, has to expect only 13 percent. A questionable decline for the party, which was able to profile itself heavily in the last legislative period. The SPD could make the leap into parliament with 7 percent, while the Greens remain below the necessary value at 4 percent.

Popularity of Prime Minister

A remarkable aspect is the popularity of the current prime ministers in both countries. In Saxony, Michael Kretschmer from the CDU would win an incredible 50 percent of the votes in a direct election. This shows that it is well regarded by the population, even if his party does not receive the same level of support. In contrast, Jörg Urban from the AfD would only come to 14 percent and Sabine Zimmermann from BSW only to 2 percent.

A similar picture becomes visible in Thuringia. Bodo Ramelow from the left could come to 42 percent, while his main competitor Björn Höcke from the AfD stays far behind him with 16 percent. Mario Voigt from the CDU and Katja Wolf from the BSW would achieve 10 or 6 percent in this scenario. So it turns out that the consent to the prime ministers does not necessarily reflect the result of their parties.

It is important to note that surveys are always affected with certain uncertainties. The political dynamics are strongly influenced by factors such as the falling party bindings of the voters and the short -term election decisions that make it difficult for the opinion research institutes to make precise predictions. Ultimately, the surveys only reflect the moment of feedback and are not a definitive forecast for the election outcome.

The election in Saxony and Thuringia could therefore be a turning point for political conditions in both federal states. The emerging BSW, which offers new alternatives in the perception of many voters, could challenge the usual power structures and possibly initiate a paradigm shift in the political landscape.

The political landscapes in Saxony and Thuringia are shaped by a variety of factors that are of both historical and socially important ones. Saxony is considered a stronghold of the CDU, while the AfD has recorded considerable profits in recent years. This development is also reflected in the election surveys, where the AfD in Thuringia is the strongest party. This redistribution of political power is not only a snapshot, but also results from profound social and economic changes that affect both federal states.

While Saxony is traditionally shaped by a greater anchoring of the CDU, the AfD has gained in approval, especially in recent years through topics such as migration and internal security. In Thuringia, on the other hand, the Left Party, which has dominated a red -government participation for years, shows signs of a significant loss of voter inflection, which also reflects the 2019 mayoral elections and the subsequent local elections in 2020.

economic factors and their influence on the voter mood

The economic conditions are also an essential basis for the voters in Saxony and Thuringia. With an unemployment rate of 5.4% (as of 2023), Saxony is below the national average, but also fights with a demographic decline that could affect economic stability. Thuringia has a slightly higher unemployment rate of 6.3%, which indicates a lower economic dynamic. These economic challenges have a direct impact on the voter expectations and their election behavior.

Another central topic is structural change in industry, especially in the area of ​​the automotive industry, to which both federal states have had to react in recent years. The transformation towards more electrification and the transition to sustainable energy sources are pressing challenges that are often addressed in campaign debates. In many election programs, the promotion of innovation and the preservation of jobs play a crucial role.

social aspects and voter behavior

socially, Saxony and Thuringia faces various challenges, especially with regard to integration processes and cohesion among the population. The high number of immigrants in recent years has often led to tensions that influence voter behavior. In many cities, prejudices have increased against migrants, which can lead to increased support for parties in the elections that position themselves against immigration. These developments illustrate the direct connection between social issues and the election decision of the citizens.

In addition, a survey of 2024 shows that security concerns and economic uncertainties are factors that strongly influence the voter preferences. Around 40% of the respondents in Saxony stated that their election decision was significantly determined by the security situation in their living environment. In Thuringia, the economic aspects were equally important, since 36% of those surveyed focused on this topic. Such statistics illustrate how closely the emotional connection between social challenges and political preferences is.