Election trends 2025: SPD and Greens lose - AfD rises!

Election trends 2025: SPD and Greens lose - AfD rises!

Thüringen, Deutschland - On May 4, 2025, the current surveys for the Bundestag election show a dynamic image of the political landscape in Germany. Regular surveys, including through the Forsa and Infratest Dimap, provide insights into the voters. According to saxis are the survey results summarized in a daily calculation of the editorial network Germany. The last elections showed that the SPD was initially the strongest force, but was then overtaken by the Union.

The Greens, which initially recorded a large influx of voters, are also declining. The FDP has also lost approval and failed in the 2025 election at the 5 percent hurdle. The AfD, which benefited from the losses of the other traffic light parties, rose to the second strongest party in mid -2023, but lost a few percentage points in early 2024. In addition, the new party BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) remains below the 5 percent of the votes.

survey method and data analysis

The methods for collecting surveys are diverse. For example, Allensbach conducts personal-madems surveys, while Forsa and Verian (Kantar Public, Emnid) use telephone surveys. Insa and YouGov rely on internet -based surveys. These surveys usually record between 1000 and 2000 people and are weighted to ensure a representative basis. They take into account factors such as gender, age and education.

The data collected, however, are projections and not fixed predictions for the election result. The elections research group points out that the static error in surveys is between 1 and 3 percentage points, whereby the amount of the error varies in relation to the percentage points of the parties. This indicates that the surveys contain a certain degree of uncertainty, which is caused by different survey techniques and the variability in the demographic data, such as dawum.de explained.

political mood in Thuringia

In Thuringia, the political situation is shaped by various possible government coalitions. The current government coalition of the CDU, BSW and SPD is characterized by a red frame that signals that this coalition no longer had a majority. A look at the distribution of seats shows that a coalition with at least 88 seats should be able to achieve more than 45 mandates to form a stable government. In theory, changes to the distribution of seats could also occur if parties do not achieve or achieve the five percent hurdle. dawum.de emphasizes the various coalition options that have already existed in the past or are currently being discussed.

The results of the surveys and political analysis underline the dynamic situation in the run -up to the Bundestag election, in which the parties are in a constant race for voting. The political discourse will be decisive in the coming months to carefully observe the shifts of opinion and potential coalitions.