Gas scenarios 2024/25: emptying the gas storage at extremely cold temperatures

Gas scenarios 2024/25: emptying the gas storage at extremely cold temperatures

gas supply under pressure: How the cold winter 2024/25 empty

A look at the coming winter season 2024/25 leaves experts worried. According to the update of the energies initiative, the gas stores face major challenges. In a normal winter, the memory are emptied extensively, but at extremely cold temperatures there is even a full vacancy at the beginning of February 2025.

The Ines management warns of the consequences: "As in the last two winters, we would face extremely cold temperatures in the gas supply. We are not yet over the mountain. The gas supply security, as we were used to before the energy crisis, has not yet been completely restored in Germany. Consumption savings will remain a relevant topic in the coming winter."

The effects on the gas storage and gas supply

The current scenarios show that the gas stores can be completely filled before the coming winter. The legal levels of filling are met, but temperature development in winter has a significant impact on the storage fillings. Falling temperatures significantly increase gas consumption. At normal temperatures, it must be saved from November.

If the winter remains mild, the gas stores will be emptied to a level between 35 and 69% by April 2025. But at extremely cold temperatures, the situation is alarming. The gas stores threaten to be completely empty at the beginning of February 2025, which would lead to a lack of gas that makes 20% of gas consumption in Germany on individual days.

Ines gas scenarios and future prospects

Ines continuously modeled the European gas markets in order to be able to estimate the gas supply. The different scenarios for the coming winter are analyzed closely. A detailed report with the model results and a presentation are available for interested parties. The next update from Ines is planned for September 5, 2024.

The gas supply is therefore faced with major challenges in the coming winter season. It remains to be seen how the situation develops and whether measures can be taken to prevent a complete vacancy of the gas storage.

- Nag