Asteroid 2024 YR4: Could he hit the earth in 2032? Scientists alarmed!

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Could he hit the earth in 2032? Scientists alarmed!

On January 30, 2025, the world is under the impression of a newly discovered asteroid with the name 2024 YR4 , the possible hazard for the earth in 2032. This near -earth asteroid, which recently attracted the attention of scientists and astronomers, was first identified in December 2023 by a telescope in Chile. The diameter of 2024 YR4 is estimated at between 40 and 100 meters , which classifies the asteroid in the category of potentially dangerous objects.

The current probability of impact that 2024 YR4 on 22. December 2032 ends up on earth, is estimated to be a little more than 1%. Paul Chodas from NASA found that despite this probability, there is a 99% ige chance that the asteroid fails the earth. This is supported by the constant monitoring and analysis of the asteroid, since its railway is currently moving away from the earth. The asteroid is classified as an Apollo type, a cross-crossing object.

risk assessment and amount of energy

Since the discovery, 2024 YR4 has been continuously observed. On 25. December 2024 the asteroid had a nearby flight at a distance of around around 828,800 kilometers from earth. A current risk model, which was rated by the Torino scale, shows a value of 3 , which means a moderate risk level. The likelihood of an impact is estimated on 1 in 77 or 1.3%, which is placed in the context of other data channels such as the Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale, the value of which is -0.53 .

The energy that could be released in the event of a possible impact is estimated at 8.0 megatons tnt , which would equate massive destruction in the vicinity of up to 50 km from the impact location. This information illustrates the importance of observation and data analysis of the asteroid in order to recognize and avert possible dangers at an early stage.

monitoring and future outlook

The NASA and the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) have developed systems such as Sentry that analyze the movement behavior of such objects for long periods of time. These systems are crucial in order to precisely evaluate the risks that are based on the Earth -related objects. 2024 YR4 will be observed for the time being until April 2025 before it is too far away to be recorded with large telescopes.

Research on 2024 YR4 is actively continued. Scientists investigate data from 2016 to analyze previous airways and to reduce potential risks. While the risk scenario develops, the probability of impact could even increase to 3-6%, the original preliminary observation on December 25, 2024 should be included in the forecasts. Currently 2024 YR4 is considered one of the most dangerous asteroids for the earth.

Experts hope to further minimize the risk of a possible impact through precise data and improved surveillance mechanisms. The international community observes developments with great interest, while technology continues to progress in order to recognize and evaluate possible threats from space.

For more information on this topic, see the articles by remszeitung , wikipedia and cneos .