Hamburg's tax surplus: 2.5 billion euros more by 2030!

Hamburg's tax surplus: 2.5 billion euros more by 2030!

The current forecasts for Hamburg radiate optimism: according to the latest estimates, the city can expect higher tax revenues in the coming years. These positive expectations were the central theme of the autumn tax estimate presented by Finance Senator Andreas Dressel (SPD) on Tuesday. An increase of around 2.5 billion euros is expected by 2030. This jump in revenue expectations compares, for example, with the tax estimate from May 2025, where considerable additional revenue has already been calculated: 527 million euros for 2025, 393 million for 2026, as well as 485 million euros for the years 2027 and 2028 and finally 652 million euros for 2029.

However, Dressel warns against excessive optimism given the flattening overall tax trend and the dramatic increases in statutory benefits, which could well become challenging. The budget discussions for 2027 and 2028 are already being planned and may be very difficult. If the federal government passes the planned tax laws to reduce VAT in the catering industry and to increase the commuter allowance, the expected income could fall by around 450 million euros by 2029. [NDR].

Macroeconomic framework data

The tax authorities’ forecasts are based on the assessment of the nationwide “Tax Estimates” working group. The future income is examined in detail there. The estimate shows a clear trend: The revenue expectations for wage tax, assessed income tax, capital gains tax and sales tax are significantly above the May estimate. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains a constant companion in this tax forecast, which is always based on applicable tax law.

However, the devil is in the details. The general global economic uncertainty and the sluggish economy in Germany leave no scope for new spending requests. Instead, the emphasis is placed on sound, long-term financial planning to overcome the challenges associated with ongoing issues and legal requirements. Hamburg.de emphasizes that support from federal funds from the special fund for investments could play an important role in the future.

So how will the situation develop? While the forecasts currently suggest positive things, a realistic look at the financial conditions is also necessary in order to position the city well. The challenge remains to use these financial resources wisely and sustainably in order to be well positioned in the coming years.

Given the current developments and the outlook for the next few years, it remains to be hoped that Hamburg can stay on a solid course and that the positive income opportunities not only exist on paper, but also bear fruit in practice. Let us remain curious to see how the political and economic conditions in the country will develop further.