Battle for NRW: AfD threatens with strong results in local elections!

Battle for NRW: AfD threatens with strong results in local elections!

The local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) on September 14, 2025 are just around the corner and the political waves are running high. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) described these elections as more than just a mood test for federal politics. According to Merz, the election result depends heavily on the individual candidates and national processes have only a limited influence on the elections. This shows that local politics has its own dynamics that should not be underestimated. SPD parliamentary group leader Dirk Wiese also sees no significant connection between the events in Berlin and voting in North Rhine-Westphalia, a federal state with around 13.7 million eligible voters - around 22 percent of the German population - and the most populous federal state overall.

In the 2020 local elections, the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia achieved 34.3 percent and the SPD 24.3 percent. However, political scientists and surveys suggest possible changes. While the CDU/CSU is struggling to hold its own compared to the last federal election, in which the CDU and SPD together received 49.3 percent of the vote, the AfD could make significant gains. It already got 5.1 percent in North Rhine-Westphalia in 2017 and the poll numbers seem to indicate a potential doubling or more - with a forecast of up to 15 percent, where it could perform particularly strongly in structurally weak regions such as Gelsenkirchen or Duisburg.

Local challenges and election issues

In cities like Cologne, where the independent mayor Henriette Reker is not running again after two terms in office, pressing issues are at the forefront of the election campaign - these include garbage, drug use and social neglect. This is where the next leader has to start and find solutions. The electoral system in North Rhine-Westphalia, which includes thousands of mandates in 427 municipalities, enables a large number of elections, including those for municipal and city councils as well as (upper) mayors and district councils.

According to the ARD “Germany Trend”, satisfaction with the Merz government has reached a low point, as only 22 percent of those surveyed are satisfied with the government’s work. This dissatisfaction could be felt in the elections, as approval ratings for the coalition have fallen. There are also tensions within the coalition, for example regarding electricity tax. The AfD received an impressive 20.8 percent in the last federal election and is now the second strongest faction in the Bundestag. According to experts, their growing support is a challenge for the established parties.

Election forecasts and possible coalitions

Current surveys show a mixed picture. While the CDU is around 32 to 36 percent, the SPD is assigned a value of 22 to 23 percent, while the AfD achieves 14 to 15 percent in the surveys. Particularly in the Ruhr area, strong results from the AfD could have a national political signal effect. Such successes would further fragment the political landscape, which could make it more difficult to form stable majorities, especially if the AfD gains seats in city halls in cities like Duisburg or Gelsenkirchen. These cities have particularly high unemployment rates and could therefore give the AfD a significant boost.

In summary, it can be said that the upcoming local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia are important not only for the state itself, but also for the entire federal political landscape. The parties must face the local challenges and the changing electorate. It remains to be seen whether the Union can maintain its place at the top, but the signs point to new beginnings and change, especially for the AfD, which has established itself as a serious player.