Government coalition in danger: Sanseito shocks Japanese elections!

Government coalition in danger: Sanseito shocks Japanese elections!

Japan's upper house elections are just around the corner and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition faces serious challenges. According to initial surveys, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito could potentially lose their majority in the upper house. By Sunday evening, however, the votes were so close that no winner could yet be determined. Ishiba's resignation is not out of the question, which could have a major impact on upcoming trade negotiations with the US, such as NZZ reported.

The right-wing Sanseito has established itself as a force to be reckoned with in this turbulent political landscape. According to a July 5-6 Kyodo News poll, the party ranks behind the LDP in proportional representation. Founded in 2020, Sanseito not only has an anti-establishment profile, but also appeals to the politically alienated and calls for a decision against globalization and foreign influences. Their populist demands include, among other things, the abolition of VAT and higher credit-financed spending. Tokyo Weekender highlights that the party also supports strict immigration restrictions and uses xenophobic slogans, which gives it unprecedented support among the population.

Political shifts and trends

Political scientist Michael Cucek expresses concern and speaks of a “Europeanization of politics” in Japan. Kiyomi Tsujimoto of the Constitutional Democratic Party describes the current dynamic as a “tectonic shift.” There are 124 seats available in these elections, of which 50 are allocated based on proportional representation and 74 in direct constituencies. Forecasts suggest that the LDP could win between 32 and 51 seats, while 50 seats would be needed for a majority. Voter dissatisfaction with rising prices and current immigration policies could help Sanseito achieve even greater growth Time describes the potential development.

The Sanseito's influence is clearly evident in its ability to shape political discourse. With over 140 members in local assemblies, the party has already gained ground and plans to increase its seats in the upper house from two to at least eleven. This suggests that Japan's political landscape could be fundamentally changing, which could also affect trade relations with the US, as Japan must conclude a trade deal by August 1 to avoid punitive tariffs.

Voter turnout was 57%, up from 52% in the last election three years ago, showing that many Japanese are willing to vote for change. The pressure on Ishiba and his coalition is high; Without a majority in the upper house, the LDP's ability to govern could be in serious jeopardy. The next period will be crucial, both for the country's political future and for international relations, especially with the USA.