Economic inequality: risk of civil war in America increases!

Economic inequality: risk of civil war in America increases!

Recently, the topic of economic inequality has become more and more urgently discussed. A recent study from the University of Tübingen brings to light worrying findings: Rising economic inequality increases the risk of civil war, particularly in countries such as the USA, Great Britain and Russia. According to the study, published in the respected journal Review of Income and Wealth, there is a clear connection between unequal income distribution and the likelihood of conflict.

Professor Jörg Baten, who leads the study, explains that data from 193 countries were evaluated over the last 200 years, which also took border changes into account. What is new is a benchmark for calculating economic inequality that, in addition to income and land ownership, also takes into account deviations from average height. This height acts as an indicator of living standards and highlights a troubling fact: before the US Civil War, for example, differences in height between income groups increased, indicating social tensions.

Statistical findings and international trends

The study shows that the risk of civil war in the US has increased from 10% to 21% over the past 30 years. But inequalities have not only grown in the USA. Experts are also observing similar trends in Great Britain, China, India and Russia. Previous civil wars create a higher risk of new conflicts, while successful democratization measures tend to reduce such risks.

Economic growth has proven unhelpful in addressing these problems. The discussion about economic policy measures such as progressive income taxes and improved access to education is therefore more relevant than ever. In Germany, income inequality has increased since the 1970s, with a significant increase between the late 1990s and early 2000s, according to policy analysis Federal Agency for Civic Education clarify.

The social dimension of inequality

The figures on global income inequality are alarming. In 2021, the richest 10 percent of the world's population earned an average of around 87,000 euros, while the poorest 50 percent had to get by on just 2,800 euros. These data also show that the distribution of wealth is even more unequal. The richest 10 percent own an average of 551,000 euros, while the poorest 50 percent only have 4,100 euros of their own. This inequality has far-reaching societal consequences, from higher crime rates to weaker social trust.

The Correlates of War Project specializes in collecting and disseminating reliable data in international relations and could be a valuable resource to support the ongoing discussion about inequality and its policy implications. With its principles of transparency and documentation, this project contributes to better understanding the challenges arising from economic inequalities.